There is no denying the importance of the global food value chain. According to two professors, Adegboyega Oyedijo, from Baylor University, and Temidayo Akenroye, from the University of Missouri-St. Louis, “The food industry is responsible for a major part of modern production and consumption.”[1] They also note that food supply chains are extremely complex. They explain, “The food supply chains that deliver goods from the farm to our plates are notoriously complex. They involve many upstream, midstream and downstream actors at different tiers, all of whom are responsible for supplying and transforming key raw materials, commodities and various items into finished products. The trend towards global sourcing and outsourcing is making this even harder, because of the varying nature of interdependencies and processes between firms, and the cooperative or adversarial relationships that exist between them.” As complexity increases, so does vulnerability.

The Iran conflict has brought many of these vulnerabilities to light. Jasper Verschuur, an Assistant Professor at Delft University of Technology, and Paul Behrens, a Professor at the University of Oxford, observe “The situation in the Middle East highlights how consumers everywhere remain vulnerable to such geographically concentrated production of energy and fertilizer.”[2] Jordan Kear-Nash, a principal consultant at Proxima, adds, “Supply chain shocks can take various forms, including pricing, quote validity and shifting allocation behavior. When shipping becomes less predictable, businesses importing goods that require controlled or time sensitive handling are often hardest hit. Alongside this, rising oil prices have a knock-on impact on the price of goods that require energy-intensive production processes. Due to a combination of these factors, the food and packaging sectors are navigating a period of prolonged uncertainty.”[3]

The Hidden Costs of a Broken Food Supply Chain

Long before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) published a study that claimed the total hidden costs of the world’s food system add up to $12.7 trillion dollars. Science writer Matt Reynolds explains that “hidden costs” include “the costs to health, society, and the environment embedded in the current food system. The biggest impact in monetary terms is on health: Globally, 73 percent of all the hidden costs accounted for by the FAO were associated with diets that led to obesity or non-communicable diseases like diabetes and heart disease. The next biggest impact in monetary terms was to the environment, accounting for more than 20 percent of quantified hidden costs.”[4] Reynolds notes, “Ultimately, bringing down these hidden costs will require a combination of government action, individual choices, and more responsible behavior from the food industry.”

With renewed attention being given to global food value chains, every aspect of food production, distribution, and use are being examined. And there is no better place to start than the Earth itself. A study published by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) noted, “Food systems have not yet been fully incorporated into intergovernmental agreements, nor do they receive sufficient focus in current strategies to address land degradation. Rapid, integrated reforms focused on global food systems, however, can move land health from crisis to recovery and secure a healthier, more stable planet for all.”[5]

Reducing Food Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

Admittedly, challenges facing the global food value chain are daunting. That doesn’t mean that stakeholders should throw up their hands in frustration rather than do what they can to address those challenges. “Critically,” explain Oyedijo and Akenroye, “many food companies struggle to integrate the concept of sustainability into the management of their supply chains in order to gain a competitive advantage. To become more sustainable, firms now need to consider how they operate as part of an extensive multi-tiered supply network with multiple supply and demand links, reverse loops, multi-way interactions and exchanges with numerous actors and non-linear dynamics — all of which can impact economic, social and environmental performance indicators.” Below are a few expert recommendations for decreasing food supply chain vulnerabilities.

• Invest in land restoration. Analysts from the UNCCD explain, “Land restoration must involve the people who live on and manage the land — especially Indigenous Peoples, smallholder farmers, women, and other vulnerable people and communities.” The good news is that there is a growing interest and commitment to regenerative farming around the world. When fertilizers are necessary, Verschuur and Behrens suggest, “The time has now come for agriculture to make the transition to ‘green ammonia’ — ammonia produced using renewable energy sources instead of fossil fuels. (Ammonia is a key ingredient in nitrogen-based fertilizer.)”

• Deploy advanced technologies. Journalist Justine Calma writes, “Deploying new technologies like remote sensing and in-field sensors could reduce pollution.”[6] Advanced technologies can also help increase crop yields. Claudia Clemens, a senior director analyst at Gartner Supply Chain, insists that artificial intelligence (AI) should play a large role in making food supply chains less vulnerable. She explains, “For food supply chains, adopting artificial intelligence is now an imperative. Supply disruptions from extreme weather events can cost the food industry billions annually, while high-profile recalls can wipe out hundreds of millions in brand value in days. … AI can deliver measurable value across traceability and visibility initiatives, enabling organizations to detect anomalies instantly, predict risks before they materialize, and automate compliance reporting.”[7]

• Increase collaboration among stakeholders. Oyedijo and Akenroye explain, “A high level of collaboration and partnership on matters relating to sustainable initiatives among multi-tier supply chain actors can aid in the long-term resolution of sustainability issues.”

• Increase stockpiles of food supply chain essentials. Verschuur and Behrens explain, “Governments should rethink the way they stock food. Modern logistics and slick supply chains mean that many countries store certain products to last a few days or weeks, with the assumption that those stocks can be swiftly replenished. Some places (Sweden, China and India for example) take a longer-term approach, seemingly driven by a stronger sense of the importance of self-sufficiency. Other countries should follow their lead, and think beyond stockpiling things like grains, to other essential farm supplies like fertilizer and pesticides.”

• Reduce food waste. For years, environmentalists have stressed the importance of reducing food waste — yet the problem persists. UNCCD analysts suggest governments should enact “policies to prevent overproduction and spoilage.” They urge food industry stakeholders to eliminate rules that “reject ‘ugly’ produce.” They also “encourage food donations and discounted sales of near-expiry products” and “education campaigns to reduce household waste. Finally, they recommend “supporting small farmers in developing countries to improve storage and transport.”

• Don’t rely too heavily on a single country. Food journalist Augustus Bambridge-Sutton writes, “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Companies must diversify the markets that they do business with as the geopolitical situation changes.”[8] This may be harder than you think. Journalist Harry Holmes explains, “From wheat and soy to rice and sugar, global food power is increasingly concentrated. … While nearly all countries produce food, only a few are big enough to exert power over the food system at large. This is often not just down to exactly what they grow, but the role of those commodities in the extensive supply chains around the world.”[9]

Concluding Thoughts

Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen, CEO of the Novo Nordisk Foundation, observes, “A generation or two ago, food systems around the world had one main purpose — to produce enough calories to feed a rapidly growing population. But these systems also contributed to biodiversity loss, environmental degradation, climate change, pollution, and the rise of metabolic diseases such as obesity and diabetes. Now the system is close to breaking under the pressures of climate, conflict, and changing demands. The questions we need to address today are therefore very different from the ones of the past.”[10] What are those questions? He continues, “Instead of ‘How do we produce more food?’ we must ask: How can we produce enough nutritious food while reducing land use and environmental damage? How do we develop crops that are resilient to the climate shocks of today and tomorrow? How do we ensure the foods we produce support long-term health, not undermine it?” Those are the right questions to ask in order to help the global food value chain reduce many of the vulnerabilities it currently faces. We all have a part to play in helping reduce those challenges.

Footnotes

[1] Adegboyega Oyedijo and Temidayo Akenroye, “Here's how we make the $9 trillion global food supply chain sustainable,” World Economic Forum, 7 August 2024.

[2] Jasper Verschuur and Paul Behrens, “How the world can avoid millions going hungry when supply chains collapse,” The Conversation, 14 May 2026.

[3] Jordan Kear-Nash, “Strait of Hormuz: The Hidden Threat to Food and Packaging Supply Chains,” SupplyChainBrain, 19 May 2026.

[4] Matt Reynolds, “The World’s Broken Food System Costs $12.7 Trillion a Year,” Wired, 6 November 2023.

[5] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, “Overhaul global food systems to avert worsening land crisis, scientists urge,” Phys.Org, 13 August 2025.

[6] Justine Calma, “The $10 trillion benefits of overhauling our food system,” The Verge, 29 June 2024.

[7] Claudia Clemens, “From Compliance to Resilience: AI’s Critical Role in Food Supply Chains,” Food Logistics, 24 November 2025.

[8] Augustus Bambridge-Sutton, “5 strategies to protect against food supply chain shocks,” Food Navigator Europe, 29 January 2026.

[9] Harry Holmes, “Who really controls the world’s food? The superpowers shaping supply,” Food Navigator Europe, 26 March 2026.

[10] Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen, “Rethinking food systems for a world under pressure,” Novo Nordisk Foundation, 28 April 2026.