Technology executives recently declared the world has achieved two new milestones. On 27 July, OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman declared “that humanity has entered the singularity — the long-theorized threshold at which artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence and advances beyond easy human prediction or control.”[1] Three days later, IBM executives insisted they had achieved “Quantum Advantage.” Tech journalist Belle Lin reported, “International Business Machines said [on 30 July 2026] its research shows ‘quantum advantage’ — a point at which quantum computers perform computations beyond conventional ones — and that these results can be rigorously validated.”[2] If these claims are true, then humanity has indeed entered a new era of computation.

The Case For and Against Quantum Advantage

IBM quantum computing experts Abhinav Kandala, Ali Javadi-Abhari, and Jay Gambetta claim, “A trio of papers from researchers at UChicago, Qedma, and Algorithmiq, in collaboration with IBM, are reporting demonstrations of quantum advantage, based on frameworks designed to build trust in the quantum computation.”[3] They report: 1) An IBM and UChicago paper “used doped Clifford sampling and spacetime codes to certify classically hard quantum computations.” 2) A Qedma, RIKEN, and BlueQubit paper “observed quantum phenomena beyond leading classical simulations using validated error-mitigation techniques.” And, 3) an Algorithmiq paper “demonstrated how trusted quantum results can emerge by validating the computation process rather than a classical answer.”

Journalist Mark Sullivan observes, “Just as AI has its dreams of ‘AGI’ and ‘superintelligence,’ quantum computing has its own north star: broad, practical quantum advantage over traditional supercomputers.”[4] He adds, “The quantum industry’s goal is to build a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer powerful enough to solve hard, economically valuable problems in fields such as chemistry, materials science, and drug discovery. Recent progress suggests the technology may be moving closer to that point. The question is whether quantum computers can finally emerge from the lab and demonstrate superiority over conventional machines in practical applications that matter.”

Most computer scientists agree that when quantum advantage is achieved — if it hasn’t already been achieved — it will mark a significant computing milestone. The real breakthrough, however, isn’t expected until a universal quantum computer is available. Technology journalist Bryon Moyer suggests the industry has some way to go before achieving that milestone. He explains, “Quantum technology is at a stage where maximum creativity meets maximum chaos. The industry hasn’t settled on a common approach to quantum computing, so different research groups have been working on different implementations simultaneously. Numerous small startups have sprung up, each addressing some aspect of a quantum system.”[5] Does that mean that quantum computers with broad commercial applications will be available any time soon? In the opinion of Bob Sorensen, chief analyst for quantum computing at Hyperion Research, “We’re on the precipice, if you will, of quantum systems becoming a real quantum utility — a real utility within an overall advanced computing ecosystem.”[6] The word “precipice” probably means years rather than decades. Heather West, an analyst at IDC, told Sullivan, “I think within the next year to two years, this is just going to take off.”

The greatest concerns about achieving true quantum advantage involve cybersecurity. Sullivan explains, “Quantum’s rise carries serious risks. The biggest is that quantum computers will likely become powerful enough to crack the public-key encryption systems that protect bank accounts, military secrets, cryptocurrency infrastructure, and much of the modern internet. Cybersecurity experts call that eventuality ‘Q-day’.” Have we reached quantum advantage. I’ll let you decide.

The Case For and Against the Singularity

On a recent podcast, OpenAI’s CEO said, “We are now, like, in the singularity. I've been waiting for this my whole life, and I think it's going to be incredible, hugely positive, awesome for the world."[7] If you are unfamiliar with the term “singularity,” Wikipedia defines it as “a hypothetical event in which technological growth accelerates beyond human control, producing unpredictable changes in human civilization.” Most people equate the singularity with the moment artificial intelligence (AI) becomes smarter than humankind. Journalist Anthony Cuthbertson explains, “It is meant to be humanity’s last invention. The moment a general-purpose AI is able to outthink the greatest human minds, then all future discoveries and scientific advancements will be made by machines rather than people.”

Cuthbertson adds, “It is also supposed to happen suddenly. A self-improving superintelligence would trigger an intelligence explosion and signal the end of the human era. The AI singularity, as it is known, has been forecast since the dawn of the computing age, with debate ramping up since the arrival of ChatGPT and the wider boom of generative AI. Predictions for when the singularity might happen have ranged from renowned technologist Ray Kurzweil’s 2045 forecast, based on Moore’s Law — an observation about the rapid pace of technological development — to the more pressing timeline of 2027 set by Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei. But according to Sam Altman, the co-founder and CEO of OpenAI, it is already here.”

Altman’s claim has, not surprisingly, stirred a lot of commentary. And most of the comments cast doubt on Altman’s claim. For example, scientist and AI expert Gary Marcus, says that CEO statements from the likes of Altman and Elon Musk are often nothing more than hype. He writes, “Don’t take them seriously. Partly because, well CEO’s gotta CEO. In the modern era, making outlandish claims is practically in the job description. … No matter how you slice it, we just are not actually there yet.”[9] Why aren’t we there yet? As professors Kai Riemer and Sandra Peter observe, “Today's AI cannot make itself smarter. Today's AI systems, the ones that OpenAI builds, are based on large language models (LLMs). These deep neural network algorithms are pretrained with vast amounts of training data. By the time you use one of them, the network itself is frozen in time. Every one of its billions of internal functions and weights — or ‘parameters’ — is fixed. These AI models cannot change (or ‘learn’) while running.”[10]

Riemer and Peter add, “The second problem with the singularity story is the word ‘surpass.’ It assumes that AI and human intelligence are somehow similar. They are not. Human intelligence is inseparable from being a living body with needs and wants. Humans learn continuously by acting in the world and getting feedback through our senses. Our goals arise from our situation as creatures who must eat, sleep and belong, and who cannot avoid asking what we want our lives to be. An AI model has none of this. No body, no needs, no action-feedback loop, no stake in anything. Between prompts, it is just a static mathematical object.”

Concluding Thoughts

In some ways, the debate about whether we’ve reached quantum advantage and the singularity is not important. The vector is clear. We know where we’re headed. As Cuthbertson observes, “Whether the singularity proves to be an overnight revolution or a slow transformation may ultimately matter less than its consequences. Even before machines become more intelligent than humans in every domain, they could reshape industries, governments and labor markets on a scale comparable to the Industrial Revolution or the internet. The actual risks of crossing this event horizon will not be known until it has already happened. And by then, it might be too late.” Before it’s too late, Riemer and Peter argue, “We should keep our feet firmly on the ground. The machines are not waking up. They are doing exactly what we built them to do, extremely fast. Because they are probabilistic, they sometimes run in directions we forgot to fence off. That is worth worrying about. We need guardrails, governance and, most of all, education — so we start worrying about the right things.”

Footnotes

[1] Cris Tolomia, “Sam Altman says we've crossed AI's point of no return,” Quartz, 27 July 2026.

[2] Belle Lin, “IBM Claims New Era of ‘Quantum Advantage’,” The Wall Street Journal, 30 July 2026.

[3] Abhinav Kandala, Ali Javadi-Abhari, and Jay Gambetta, “Researchers demonstrate quantum advantage through trusted quantum computation,” IBM, 30 July 2026.

[4] Mark Sullivan, “Quantum computing is about to get a lot more real,” Fast Company, 2 July 2026.

[5] Bryon Moyer, “Where Does Quantum Computing Stand?” Semiconductor Engineering, 9 July 2026.

[6] Shayle Kann, “When will quantum computing have its breakout moment?” Catalyst at Latitude Media, 16 July 2026.

[7] Cris Tolomia, “Sam Altman says we've crossed AI's point of no return,” Quartz, 27 July 2026.

[8] Anthony Cuthbertson, “Are we already in the AI singularity? The moment that could make humans obsolete,” The Independent, 2 August 2026.

[9] Gary Marcus, “Sorry, Sam and Elon, we have not reached the Singularity,” Marcus on AI, 28 July 2026.

[10] Kai Riemer and Sandra Peter, “CEO of OpenAI says we're 'in the singularity' with AI: Is he right?” Tech Xplore, 31 July 2026.