Jan 27, 2025
steve
"Strategic planning is dead," writes Lisa Bodell, CEO of FutureThink.[1] Nevertheless, she believes, "Strategic planning has the potential to be one of the activities that has the most impact on an organization." While I don't agree that strategic planning is dead (and, in reality, neither does Bodell), I certainly agree that strategic planning remains critical to a company's success. Strategic planning defines an organization's long-term direction by setting goals and allocating resources to achieve them. Strategic planning begins with an analysis of an organization's current situation (i.e. what is the starting point) and determining where the organization wants to be at some selected point in the future. A strategic plan identifies opportunities and threats to those goals, then determines actions (i.e., tactics) that can capitalize on strengths and mitigate weaknesses when following the corporate roadmap for the future. A good corporate strategy involves setting a vision then establishing key objectives to guide decision-making and resource allocation.
The Importance of Strategic Planning
Boston Consulting Group (BCG) analysts Wendi Backler, Alan Iny, Nick D'Intino, Elton Parker, and Satoshi Hirashita underscore what all corporate planners know — we live in a world filled with uncertainties. They cite French philosopher Voltaire, who some 250 years ago, observed, “Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position, but certainty is an absurd one.”[2] The BCG analysts write, "Today, uncertainty can be more uncomfortable than ever, especially for business strategists trying to make sense of volatile and fast-moving markets, economies, and geopolitical circumstances. ... All too often, strategists attempt to predict the future so they can react to it — an approach that can be fraught with oversimplifications and inaccuracies. Strategic foresight, on the other hand, aims to anticipate, analyze, adapt to, and shape the factors that are relevant to a company’s business — better and before competitors."
Because "certainty is absurd," strategic plans must be living documents that adapt as conditions change. It also means that the strategic planning processes must be ongoing and proactive. Planning teams must constantly ask good questions about the future. Months before the 2024 presidential election was conducted and its outcome known, John Jullens, and Marc S. Robinson, Managing Partners at Arbalète LLC, posed seven questions the answers to which they believe will shape what the world will look like over the next decade and beyond.[3] Those questions were:
1. Will geopolitical instability and military conflicts deepen and spread?
2. Will the post-WWII trading system break down?
3. Will the Chinese economy get stuck indefinitely?
4. Will the forces of populism and nationalism strengthen?
5. Will governments “bound” AI and Big Tech?
6. Will the transition away from fossil fuels be derailed?
7. Is it time to transition from climate change mitigation to mitigation + adaptation?
Jullens and Robinson conclude, "Uncertainty and volatility may not be what companies and their investors desire, but they invariably offer new profit opportunities to those companies that are able to identify emerging trends, capture growth opportunities and mitigate risks earlier than their competitors. Strategic foresight has surely never been more important."
Gaining Strategic Foresight
The good news, according to BCG analysts, is, "New tools and capabilities, especially when used in combination, can transform uncertainty from a source of discomfort to one of competitive advantage. They are rooted in the well-established approach of strategic foresight, and they employ a few contemporary twists. Those who embrace them can anticipate and plan for the future more effectively than competitors. What makes today’s strategic foresight such a powerful capability is that it marries cutting-edge analytics with proven creative tools and artificial intelligence (AI) to empower better, more risk-informed strategic thinking."
As I explained in another article, "Advanced technology adoption is critical to weathering the storm. [Companies can address uncertainty] by utilizing artificial intelligence-enabled systems of intelligence (SOIs) that strategically inform how to navigate volatility better and faster than industry competitors. SOIs are cross-enterprise optimization and decision-making systems that fuse human-like reasoning and generative AI with transparent glass-box machine learning and non-linear optimization to perform scenario-based predictive modeling relative to the degree of probability that specific disruptions will occur. The insights derived from this modeling serve as a foundational knowledge base for mitigating commodity risk via diversified supply sourcing, product portfolio optimization, and price-driven demand shaping. By pulling those three levers in unison, [organizations] can make measurable strides to reduce risk exposure while increasing profit and capturing expanded market share."[4]
The Enterra System of Intelligence™, built upon the Enterra Autonomous Decision Science™ (ADS®) platform and using generative AI, autonomously performs end-to-end optimization, planning, and decision-making at scale and at the speed of the market with human-like intelligence and reasoning. A defining feature of the Enterra System of Intelligence™ is its architecture which is comprised of a set of interconnected business applications that leverage a common analysis, optimization, and decision-making/learning platform. These business applications include: the Enterra Consumer Insights Intelligence System™; the Enterra Revenue Growth Intelligence System™; the Enterra Demand and Supply Intelligence System™; and the Enterra Global Insights and Decision Superiority System™ (which is part of Enterra Business WarGaming™). The BCG analysts note, "[Strategic planners] require a dynamic, iterative process that combines rigorous data analysis with imaginative 'what if?' explorations to develop stronger mid- to long-term strategies." The Enterra System of Intelligence can help business leaders rapidly explore a multitude of options and scenarios. Dan Cakora, a Business Consultant at Vendavo, suggests four scenarios, based on inflation and market conditions, that companies should consider as the year moves forward.
Cakora most positive scenario is the soft landing. He explains, "In a soft landing, the economy achieves steady GDP growth of around 2%, which is close to the historical long-run average, while inflation stays close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This scenario provides an ideal environment for [companies] to grow without major disruption." The worst scenario is the overheating economy. Cakora explains, "In an overheating economy, GDP growth and inflation surge past 3%. [Companies] face the dual challenge of elevated demand and rising costs, requiring swift action to protect margins and manage customer relationships." According to Cakora, "In a growth recession, GDP growth stagnates at 0.5%–1.5%, and inflation remains moderate, hovering around 2%. While cost pressures may be low, [companies] face limited opportunities for expansion and heightened uncertainty. Success hinges on focusing resources on the most promising opportunities while remaining agile." Finally, Cakora explains the stagflation scenario. He writes, "Stagflation, marked by inflation surging above 4%, GDP growth falling below 1% and unemployment rates above 5%, is one of the most challenging economic environments for [companies]. Companies face dual pressures of rising costs and sluggish demand, requiring resilience and a highly focused approach to survive."
Those are only four out of an endless number of "what if" scenarios companies could consider. Planners must determine which variables could have the greatest impact on their specific operations and explore the various outcomes that different scenarios produce. Obviously, strategic plans will vary depending on which scenario actually unfolds.
Concluding Thoughts
Bodell observes, "For something so important to an organization’s well-being, the planning process has become performative; an exercise full of wishes and well-intentioned goals that are rarely achieved." To bolster her argument, she notes, "48% of all organizations fail to meet at least half of their strategic targets. 61% of C-level executives acknowledge their firms struggle to bridge the gap between strategy formulation and day-to-day implementation. [And] 47% of team members don’t know how their leadership is tracking the strategy execution." She concludes, "Given the hundreds (and sometimes thousands) of hours that are spent annually, this lack of impact in strategic planning is detrimental. It leads to strategic plans that are outdated before they’re even finalized, disconnected from the real challenges and opportunities the organization faces."
BCG analysts add, "Today’s strategists need to anticipate, detect, and decipher weak signals of potential disruptions (which may actually be materializing fast). ... The use of strategic foresight can help companies anticipate what might be coming—technology innovation, shifts in consumer attitudes, or demographic or climate pressures, for example — so that they can incorporate early signals and resulting contingency actions into their planning. This lets users adjust in real time as signals change." Companies that are agile and adaptive will be the those that perform best in an uncertain world.
Footnotes [1] Lisa Bodell, "Strategic planning is dead. This is why we need to revive it," Fast Company, 9 September 2024.
[2] Wendi Backler, Alan Iny, Nick D'Intino, Elton Parker, and Satoshi Hirashita, "Navigating the Future with Strategic Foresight," Boston Consulting Group,
[3] John Jullens and Marc S. Robinson, "Tackling Strategic Planning in an Unstable World," IndustryWeek, 26 February 2024. [4] Stephen DeAngelis, "How AI Can Help Mitigate CPG Commodity Risk in 2025," Food Logistics, 12 December 2024. [5] Dan Cakora, "Four Strategic-Planning Scenarios for 2025," IndustryWeek, 9 December 2024.