"We all need to eat," writes the staff at News Medical, "but the impact of the climate crisis on our crops is throwing the world's food supply into question."[1] The News Medical article is one of an increasing number of articles that lament the fact that global agricultural and food systems are experiencing profound upheavals as a result of climate change, loss of biodiversity, changes in land use, geopolitics, and shifts in demography. Chief among those concerns is climate change. Professor Michael Palmgren, from the University of Copenhagen, and Professor Sergey Shabala, from the University of Tasmania, explain just how dire the situation is.[2] They write:

"Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and the implications of global warming on the profitability and sustainability of agricultural production systems are substantial. Climate change is predicted to increase the impact of both biotic and abiotic stresses on crops. The ability to control biotic stresses such as diseases and pests is challenged by the pressure to reduce the use of chemical control agents and thus their environmental footprint. Abiotic stresses negatively affect the fertility of soils and impose massive limitations on crop performance. Many of them (e.g., drought, extreme temperatures, and soil salinization) are tightly interlinked and should be considered in the same context. Global warming leads to major changes in rainfall patterns, thus increasing both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, with the risk of a 1-in-100 years extreme weather event likely to increase to 1 in 30 by 2040. At present, 40% of the entire land area is currently classified as dryland zones; 70 countries in the world are regularly affected by drought, costing agriculture over US$80 billion p.a. in lost opportunities. On average, 1 week of drought stress causes a 3–8% yield loss for major staple crops, and future predictions are that the drought-related yield reductions will increase by more than 50% by 2050 for the major crops."

Addressing climate change alone, will not secure global food value chains for future generations. Every aspect of these value chains — including environmental conditions (e.g. soil), biodiversity, cultivation and production systems, trade and demand, the food processing industry, and consumers needs and eating habits — must all be addressed.

Mitigating and Adapting is an Imperative

Journalist Ayurella Horn-Muller observes, "The long-term threat of climate change to food supply and consequences for costs of major crop commodities increasingly calls for deliberate climate mitigation and adaptation measures."[3] Roderick Rejesus, agricultural economist at North Carolina State University, told her, "The literature is pretty clear [that if the observed increased frequency of extreme weather events continues, it will hurt crop yields.] ... It's possible we could face unprecedented market impacts if we don't do anything in terms of mitigation and adapting." With rising food prices already creating budget problems for many people, learning that things could get worse is bad news. As noted above, one of the concerns is a lack of biodiversity, Horn-Muller reports, "Corn, wheat and rice together make up a major portion of the human diet, accounting for roughly 42% of the world's food calories. A 2022 Scientific Reports paper found that under global warming by 2°C (3.6°F) and relative to 1986–2005, corn yield will decrease worldwide, and increase little under global warming by 1.5°C (2.7°F) — with the loss risk of corn by 2°C much more serious." Some scientists predict we will cross the 1.5°C threshold this year.

Climate journalist Georgina Gustin discusses alarming results that continue to emerge from complex models that look at how climate change could affect crops.[4] She points to the work of Cynthia Rosenzweig, a professor at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) at Columbia University, who has studied the topic since the 1980s. According to Gustin, "Prompted in part by Rosenzweig’s work, a growing cadre of researchers started looking at combinations of other variables — including rain, soil quality, fertilizers, pests, carbon dioxide levels, crop varieties. The data improved. The models got more sophisticated. And, eventually, these scientists began to collaborate." Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and computer modeling has made these models more accurate.

A couple of years ago, a GISS colleague of Rosenzweig, Jonas Jägermeyr, published a paper that predicted decreased crop production will happen sooner rather than later. He told Gustin, “More crops are predicted to react negatively. ... Across the world and in many bread basket regions, this is going to occur in the next couple years. The main message here is: This is right around the corner.” Gustin concludes, "Even though researchers are increasingly confident that crop yields will falter, they say there’s a lot of work to be done in the modeling discipline. The world’s population will hit 10 billion people in 2050 when hotter temperatures and increased flooding will make feeding them more challenging. Knowing when and where the declines will happen — getting a full view of the risks — will be critical to preventing famine and malnutrition."

What Can Be Done?

Inaction is not an option. On the production side of the problem, Palmgren and Shabala suggest one "realistic goal" to maintain crop yields is to breed "crops with increased tolerance to abiotic stresses such as drought, salinity, waterlogging, and high temperatures." Regenerative agriculture could also play a role. Gustin admits regenerative agriculture "is a somewhat fuzzy concept."[5] Roy Steiner, who leads food initiatives at the Rockefeller Foundation, told Gustin, "There’s a definition issue with regenerative agriculture, but we really define it in terms of outcomes. Regenerative agriculture moves you toward better soil health, better biodiversity, better water quality and better farmer well-being. Ninety percent of agriculture in the world doesn’t meet that definition.” He indicates "that it will take $400 to 500 million over the next decade to transition more agricultural systems in that direction." Even if the agricultural sector manages to adapt to climate change, the products produced still need to get to market.

That's why Shangyan Li, Director of AI Product Development at GrubMarket, insists, "The global food supply chain is the most important industrial system in play today."[6] He adds, "In response to these challenges, AI is emerging as a promising step forward, particularly in the U.S. market, where it's already been shown to mitigate many of these issues. By optimizing each link in the supply chain — from farm to table — AI is creating new opportunities for scalability, transparency and sustainability, providing a much-needed lifeline to an industry under pressure." Nari Viswanathan, Senior Director of supply chain strategy at Coupa, also believes technology can be used successfully to make supply chains more efficient and effective. He explains why technology is needed, "As commodity shortages continue to affect consumers on a global scale, it’s high time that business and supply chain leaders move past considering how we got here, and take action to minimize, mitigate and prevent additional shortages. Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events and, as a result, natural disasters are on the rise." His technology of choice to address some challenges — digital twins.

Viswanathan believes the complexity of today's food value chains are so complex they need technology to help us understand them. He explains, "Many of the items have a predetermined shelf life. Part of creating a resilient supply chain is ensuring a balance between 'just-in case' and 'just-in-time' resources. But with perishable goods, businesses have less optionality to stockpile because their supply automatically loses value over time. As a result, it becomes more critical for businesses to evaluate how they go about supply chain planning. With climate change presenting new challenges, businesses must innovate to tackle these threats. ... Building resilience in supply chain models and operations is critical. To navigate the complex logistics system of the supply chain, businesses should invest in supply chain design informed by digital twin technology. This creates a virtual replica of a physical supply chain, allowing companies to test scenarios and understand how disruptions will impact their business."

The tech and agricultural sectors need to continue to work closely together to help secure global food value chains. I believe scenario planning, as discussed above will play an important role in helping to both mitigate and adapt to changing climate conditions. AI solutions, like the Enterra Global Insights and Decision Superiority System™ (EGIDS™) — powered by the Enterra Autonomous Decision Science™ platform — can help business leaders rapidly explore a multitude of options and scenarios. This type of capability will be essential as weather patterns shift and natural disasters present new supply chain challenges.

Footnotes

[1] Staff, "Developing climate-resilient crops is essential for global food security," News Medical, 9 December 2024.

[2] Michael Palmgren and Sergey Shabala, "Adapting crops for climate change: regaining lost abiotic stress tolerance in crops," Frontiers in Science, 4 December 2024.

[3] Ayurella Horn-Muller, "The climate wrecking ball striking food supply," Axios, 7 August 2023.

[4] Georgina Gustin, "Complex Models Now Gauge the Impact of Climate Change on Global Food Production. The Results Are ‘Alarming’," Inside Climate News, 27 March 2022.

[5] Georgina Gustin, "As Global Hunger Levels Remain Stubbornly High, Advocates Call for More Money to Change the Way the World Produces Food," Inside Climate News,  26 August 2024.

[6] Shangyan Li, "From Farm To Future: AI Automation For The Food Supply Chain," Forbes, 7 October 2024.

[7] Nari Viswanathan, "The Food Supply Chain’s Secret Sauce for Fighting Climate Change," SupplyChainBrain, 27 October 2023.