If you hosted a traditional 4th of July cookout featuring hamburgers and potato salad, you were not alone. You probably also noticed that the price of hamburger patties has increased since last year. Commodities journalist Kirk Maltais reports, “Consumers’ appetite for beef hasn’t waned — in fact both demand and prices have surged — since the Covid-19 pandemic. The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates that the retail price for 2 pounds of ground beef has risen to $13.33, or $6.67 a pound. It is the highest price recorded by the survey since it began in 2013.”[1] One reason for the price hike is the low supply of beef. The situation reminds me of the iconic 1984 Wendy’s commercial in which an elderly woman, played by actress Clara Peller, asks, “Where’s the beef?” Maltais reports, “U.S. cattle inventories are at their lowest in roughly 75 years, according to data from the Agriculture Department. In its most recent assessment, the USDA said that the total cattle herd in the U.S. is 86.7 million animals, the lowest since 1951.”

Drought, Worms, and Bird Flu

Maltais observes that there are several issues contributing to this historically low cattle supply. First, there is climate change. Maltais notes, “It has been exceptionally dry across the heartland in recent years, limiting the land where cattle can graze. Droughts hitting pastures lead to nutritional deficits in cows, and it also allows drought-tolerant weeds to grow, potentially toxic for grazing animals.” With the U.S. Government practically withdrawing from its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the situation is unlikely to improve over the coming years.

Second, there is a growing menace coming from the south: The New World screwworm fly. Worries about the fly’s encroachment northward has limited imports of cattle. Maltais explains, “Cattle inventories have taken a hit from the spread of infestations of New World screwworm. The New World screwworm fly is a parasitic species of fly, which causes myiasis when it lays its eggs in open wounds of warm-blooded animals. The fly larvae then burrow into the wound, feeding as they go like a screw being driven into wood.” Journalist Madison Darbyshire describes the screwworm as “a ‘flying piranha’ that eats its host from the inside out, the screwworm is capable of killing a full-grown steer in just 10 days.”[2] The New World screwworm is not a new menace.

American ranchers have faced down the menace before. Darbyshire explains, “It was a relentless, deadly blight on America’s livestock for decades from the 1930s, costing ranchers and the US economy hundreds of millions of dollars each year. Now, after being eradicated from the US since the early 1980s and largely forgotten, top veterinarians expect the screwworm could be back as soon as the summer.” With concerns growing, the U.S. Depart of Agriculture (USDA) finally acted. On 11 May 2025, the USDA “announced the suspension of live cattle, horse, and bison imports through U.S. ports of entry along the southern border due to the continued and rapid northward spread of New World Screwworm in Mexico.”[3] A week later, on 18 June, the USDA announced plans to open a sterile fly dispersal facility in Texas, and invested $21 million in updating a plant in Mexico to produce sterile flies.[4] More recently, the USDA relented on the import ban. It announced a phased reopening of cattle, bison and equine imports from Mexico. Many experts consider USDA actions to date to be too little, too late to stop the spread of the screwworm before it infects U.S. cattle.

Finally, the threat from bird flu looms over the horizon as well. Although bird flu has primarily affected dairy herds, the virus is mutating rapidly and could potentially affect beef cattle as well. Journalist David Mills reports, “A second variant of the H5N1 bird flu has been found in dairy cows in the United States. The United States Department of Agriculture reports that the new version of bird flu, known as D1.1, was discovered in the milk of cows in two counties in Nevada. This is the first time this strain has been identified in cattle. The B3.13 strain of bird flu has been linked to infections in 950 herds of cattle in 16 states. This version is the one that’s been primarily found in chickens and other birds and led to a nationwide shortage of eggs. The discovery of the D1.1. variant in cattle has raised concerns about how quickly the bird flu virus may be mutating.”[5]

Concluding Thoughts

All of this talk about drought, screwworms, and bird flu might have you questioning whether it’s safe to eat beef products. In June, the USDA stated, “USDA is confident that the meat supply is safe. USDA has a rigorous meat inspection process, which includes Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) veterinarians who are present at all Federal livestock slaughter facilities. FSIS personnel inspect each animal before slaughter, and all cattle carcasses must pass a second inspection after slaughter and be determined to be fit to enter the human food supply.”[6] Consumers can also help ensure the meat they consume is safe. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert and a professor of medicine at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee, told Mills, “No risk has been associated with eating beef, but the usual recommendations continue: wash hands thoroughly, wash cutting boards after use, cook hamburgers well done.” The bottom line is that cattle herds face an uncertain future with all the challenges coming at them. That means we are likely to continue asking, “Where’s the beef?”

Footnotes

[1] Kirk Maltais, “Your July Fourth Burgers Cost More Than Ever as Beef Prices Hit Record,” The Wall Street Journal, 30 June 2025.

[2] Madison Darbyshire, “A Deadly Parasite’s Return Threatens US Ranchers Too Young to Remember It,” Bloomberg, 2 May 2025.

[3] Staff, “Secretary Rollins Suspends Live Animal Imports Through Ports of Entry Along Southern Border, Effective Immediately,” U.S. Depart of Agriculture press release, 11 May 2025.

[4] Karl Plume, “USDA announces phased reopening of Mexican cattle imports after screwworm closure,” Reuters, 30 June 2025.

[5] David Mills, “New Type of Bird Flu Detected in Us Dairy Cows. Is It Safe To Consume Milk, Beef?” Healthline, 7 February 2025.

[6] Staff, “H5N1 and Safety of U.S. Meat Supply,” U.S. Depart of Agriculture, 27 June 2025.