Last fall Leslie Vinjamuri, President and CEO Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and Max Yoeli, a Consulting Fellow in the U.S. and the Americas Program at Chatham House, wrote, “The United States is failing in the Global South.”[1] Some people may respond, “So what? Does the Global South real matter very much to America? Isn’t it just a bunch of poor nations?”

To some extent, that description is true. Ambassador Jorge Heine, a research professor at the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future at Boston University, explains, “The Global South refers to various countries around the world that are sometimes described as ‘developing,’ ‘less developed’ or ‘underdeveloped.’ Many of these countries — although by no means all — are in the Southern Hemisphere, largely in Africa, Asia and Latin America. In general, they are poorer, have higher levels of income inequality and suffer lower life expectancy and harsher living conditions than countries in the ‘Global North’ — that is, richer nations that are located mostly in North America and Europe, with some additions in Oceania and elsewhere.”[2]

Regardless of the Global South’s current economic position, Vinjamuri and Yoeli argue, “The markets and materials that these countries possess will only become more central to solving problems that the [current administration] expresses great interest in addressing, such as bolstering U.S. supply chains and securing critical minerals.” As for the rest of the world, they explain, “The participation of the global South is increasingly crucial to tackling challenges … such as climate change and global health crises.”

Why the Global South Matters

Before discussing the importance of the Global South, it should be noted that not everyone is happy with that term. Stewart Patrick, a Senior Fellow and Director of the Global Order and Institutions Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Alexandra Huggins, a former researcher in Patrick’s program, insist the phrase should be retired because it “lacks the depth and diversity of the world it purports to describe.”[3] They add, “The question today is whether the Global South label, whatever its past relevance, still makes any sense.” Journalist Alan Beattie agrees. He writes, “It’s quite an achievement for an expression to be patronizing, factually inaccurate, a contradiction in terms and a catalyst for political polarization all within two words, but the deeply unhelpful term ‘Global South’ manages it with aplomb.”[4] And political scientist Miriam Prys-Hansen writes, “There is neither agreement on who this Global South actually is, nor fundamentally on whether the Global South exists at all, given the great heterogeneity and the dynamics of those who are typically classified within it.”[5] Nevertheless, Prys-Hansen notes, “The term Global South is currently on everyone’s lips; there can hardly be any discussion of power shifts and reorganizations of the international system without resorting to it.” Since the term is still widely used — and no better term has emerged — this article will continue to use it.

If you don’t know why the Global South matters, let me provide a few details. Most of the world’s population (about 85% of it) lives in the Global South. While the Global North is growing old, the Global South remains young. Jason Hsu, founder and CIO at Rayliant Global Advisors, explains why this is important. He writes, “Famed French sociologist and philosopher Auguste Comte said that demography is destiny. Indeed, aging demographics is one of the most predictable macro challenges for humanity — the ultimate slow-motion train wreck. The world is getting older. … Over the next 20 years, aging developed markets will lean on emerging markets for their younger and more plentiful workforce, giving emerging markets newfound bargaining power.”[6] Hsu also predicts that the Global South won’t want any part of the Global North’s national debt.

These young consumers are going to be the customers international organizations seek. Analysts from the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) explain, “CEOs everywhere should take note of the growing sophistication and economic strength of the Global South. Countries in the Global South account today for approximately 18% of global GDP. Combined, GDP is projected to grow by an average of 4.2% annually through 2029, compared with 1.9% for advanced economies. Commensurate with the rapid growth, Global South trade is projected to reach $14 trillion by 2033. Countries like India, Brazil, and Indonesia are climbing the ranks of the world’s largest economies. CEOs can no longer afford to treat the Global South as peripheral—it is becoming an important engine of global growth.”[7]

The Global South also possesses many of the essential minerals required by today’s products. According to the Deutsche Bank Research Institute, more than 40% of the world’s energy and transition metals are produced in the Global South.[8] Just as importantly, the Global South is positioned to play a dominant role in the post-carbon era. Vikram Singh, a Senior Director at RMI, explains:

“Research shows that three-quarters of the Global South’s energy demand is in the ‘sweet spot’ of change based on their level of fossil fuel imports, income, energy demand, and available renewable resources. The research finds: With 60 percent of the global population, the Global South has only 20 percent of fossil fuel production and reserves, and oil and gas production are in decline. As a result, it is already a net importer of fossil fuels. In contrast, the Global South is rich in renewables, with 70 percent of global renewable potential. In 2024, 87 percent of capital expenditures on electricity generation will go into clean energy. Over the past five years, solar and wind generation in the Global South has grown on average at 23 percent annually, now supplying 9 percent of its electricity. Global South solar and wind adoption is only five years behind the Global North. One-fifth of the Global South, from Brazil to Morocco and Namibia, from Bangladesh to Egypt and Vietnam, has already overtaken the Global North in terms of the share of solar and wind in electricity generation, or the share of electricity in final energy.”[9]

In other words, the post-carbon economy is finding a home in the Global South and China dominates that economy.

America Needs to Join the Game

For both national security and economic reasons, America needs to court the Global South. Vinjamuri and Yoeli write, “Global South countries crave a trustworthy partner. Their optimism that China can offer good-faith partnerships has largely evaporated.” Why? Anne Neuberger, the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford University and former Deputy National Security Advisor for Cyber & Emerging Tech at the White House, explains, “Mere decades after the widespread adoption of the Internet opened a new realm of geopolitical contestation, China is positioning itself to dominate the digital battle space. … Chinese malware has been discovered embedded in U.S. energy, water, pipeline, and transportation systems. These intrusions show little evidence of traditional intelligence gathering. Instead, they appear to be designed for sabotage.”[11] If Chinese malware can penetrate America systems, it can happen anywhere. The Global South is well aware that Chinese assistance and technologies come with price. Often a dear price.

Nevertheless, China hasn’t just put its foot in the door of the Global South, it’s stepped right in. Not only is China helping the Global South with critical infrastructure, it’s offering digital services and technologies, including artificial intelligence. Back in 2021, the Insikt Group called Chinese activities “Digital Colonialism.”[10] Strategist Thomas P.M. Barnett sees this as a superpower competition to integrate the Global South, and China is winning. He explains, “There is a virtuous circle among the Internet of Things (IoT), Big Data, and Artificial Intelligence (AI), summable as the coming Artificial Intelligence of Things (AIoT) — the combination of AI technologies with IoT infrastructure. The more you own such networks, the smarter you get, the better you run those networks, and the more your ownership deepens and expands with time … giving you even more networks, making you even smarter … you get the idea.”[12]

The Center for Data Innovation observes, “If the United States wants to bring Global South partners into its AI orbit and keep them there, it will need to show it can offer long-term value by fostering collaborative partnerships that prioritize local AI capacity building, address specific national development goals, and ensure reliable, sustained access to technology. It will also have to resist any urge to turn its AI efforts into a values contest, instead focusing on cultivating pragmatic economic partnerships.”[13]

As noted above, China is also the primary trading partner and supplier of green technologies to the Global South. This relationship will only deepen as the world transitions to green economy. The Deutsche Bank Research Institute predicts the Global South “will play an important role in shaping the changing world: from reconstruction of supply chains, the movement of people, the success of sustainability, the dominance of the dollar, the outcome of technology wars, to the allocation of resources.” Vinjamuri and Yoeli conclude, “Letting the opportunity pass would be a grave mistake. The Global South’s growing ambitions make it imperative that the United States embrace new avenues of collaborative leadership.”

Footnotes

[1] Leslie Vinjamuri and Max Yoeli, “America’s Last Chance With the Global South,” Foreign Affairs, 15 November 2024.

[2] Jorge Heine, “The Global South is on the rise – but what exactly is the Global South?,” The Conversation, 3 July 2023.

[3] Stewart Patrick and Alexandra Huggins, “The Term ‘Global South’ Is Surging. It Should Be Retired.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 15 August 2023.

[4] Alan Beattie, “The ‘Global South’ is a pernicious term that needs to be retired,” Financial Times, 14 September 2024.

[5] Miriam Prys-Hansen, “The Global South: A Problematic Term,” Internationale Politik Quarterly, 29 June 2023.

[6] Jason Hsu, “Demographic Shifts: How Aging Economies Impact Emerging Market Assets,” Rayliant Insights.

[7] Staff, “The CEO’s Guide to the Global South,” Boston Consulting Group, 30 July 2025.

[8] Staff, “The Global South: A strategic approach to the world’s fourth bloc,” Deutsche Bank Research Institute, 6 May 2025.

[9] Vikram Singh, “Powering Up the Global South,” Rocky Mountain Institute.

[10] Staff, “China’s Digital Colonialism: Espionage and Repression Along the Digital Silk Road,” Recorded Future, 27 July 2021.

[11] Anne Neuberger, “China Is Winning the Cyberwar,” Foreign Affairs, 13 August 2025.

[12] Thomas P.M. Barnett, “The Superpower Competition to Integrate the Global South,” Thomas P.M. Barnett’s Global Throughlines, 13 May 2024.

[13] Staff, “What It Will Take to Bring the Global South into the US AI Alliance,” Center for Data Innovation, 16 September 2025.