The world is in flux. Every day something unexpected occurs. Many of these unexpected developments significantly impact the business environment. “How can companies plan ahead when it feels like tomorrow may look nothing like today?” asks journalist Anjli Raval.[1] She adds, “It’s the question hanging over boardrooms as business leaders contend with a barrage of challenges — from AI disruption and geopolitical tensions to tariffs and financial market fluctuations driven by how trigger-happy the US president is on social media. The feeling of heightened uncertainty is palpable.”[1]

In answer to her own question, Raval notes, “For decades, scenario planning has helped organizations map out a range of futures based on variables including economic shifts, technological leaps and regulatory changes. Pioneered at Shell — which anticipated the 1973 oil shock — scenario planning has been a corporate staple since.” Is scenario planning still viable in today’s business world? After all, some experts insist the world is now Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear, and Incomprehensible (BANI). Other experts use an older term to describe the world: VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous). Neither acronym gives planners much hope that the future will be more stable. One UK executive told Raval, “The one scenario everyone seems to have forgotten to plan for is the one where all the scenarios are wrong.”

The Value of Scenario Planning

Even though Raval believes that today’s business environment is “stress testing” scenario planning, she observes, “Scenario planning was never about predicting the future — it’s about training for it.” Scenario planning requires business leaders to ask some very difficult “what if?” questions. And, as Raval notes, “Asking ‘what if?’ has clear benefits.” The staff at John Galt explains, “The concept of scenario planning has evolved from a niche strategy into a foundational capability for resilient, forward-looking supply chains. While much has been said about the need to ‘stay ahead of the curve,’ the real shift now lies in how companies are using scenario planning not just to avoid risk — but to strategically outmaneuver it.”[2] They highlight five ways that scenario planning can enhance business decisions. They are:

1. Understanding Tradeoffs and Risks. The John Galt staff notes, “Many organizations rely on intuition often driven by incomplete data when deciding their next move. It’s often a case of ‘wait and see,’ and then respond. ... You no longer have the luxury of time.” David Niles, President of Council Advisors and Vice-Chairman of World 50 Group, told Raval that scenario planning is “not about getting the forecast right — it’s about having a series of plays ready, so when the unexpected happens, you’re not frozen.”

2. Evaluating Impact Probabilities. According to the John Galt staff, “Companies often wait for the impact of an event to unfold — then scramble to respond. Advanced scenario planning flips this script, enabling supply chain teams to simulate several outcomes in advance across multiple dimensions, while allowing them to evaluate the probability of each. Technology powers the ability to run hundreds or thousands of simulations (without human involvement) to understand the impact and move and act faster, and either minimize a negative impact or seize early-mover advantage.”

3. Being Adaptable and Responsive. The John Galt staff asserts, “Supply chains teams have become used to tactical firefighting to resolve issues as they arose. Every day, every hour — the world we operate in changes. Scenario planning unlocks a more adaptive and responsive approach to planning. It enables leaders to take a proactive stance and pivot; aligning operations with strategic goals, and optimizing across a broader set of variables including cost, risk, and service levels.”

4. Thinking Strategically End-to-End. According to the John Galt staff, “Traditional planning was limited by a single point in time, often in a siloed box. By contrast, scenario planning offers a dynamic, end-to-end view of the entire supply chain ecosystem. Decision-makers can connect upstream and downstream effects, break down silos, and coordinate more cohesive and strategic responses.”

5. Unlocking Hidden Opportunities. Finally, the John Galt staff insists, “Perhaps one of the most powerful advantages [of scenario planning] is the ability to uncover value in places previously overlooked. With visibility into possible outcomes, companies can find hidden efficiencies, identify unused capacity, or seize market opportunities that would otherwise be missed. This is the strategic upside of a scenario mindset beyond managing risk — to generate new business value.”

For years I have been promoting and writing about the benefits of scenario planning and asking “what if?” questions. These benefits became even clearer when the global trade war broke out. When the Forbes Technology Council asked me to comment about how companies can become more operationally resilient, I stated: “The biggest challenge in achieving resilience is not redundancy, but systematically anticipating and adapting to disruptions before they occur. To compete, organizations are leveraging AI for scenario-based modeling and developing robust contingency plans. Prescriptive and anticipatory models and adaptable response frameworks enable businesses to manage risks proactively and respond quickly.”[3]

It’s why Enterra Solutions® introduced the Enterra Dynamic Enterprise Resiliency System™ (EDERS™): a groundbreaking new product designed to enable enterprises to convert macroeconomic and geopolitical chaos into a powerful competitive advantage. EDERS is built on Enterra’s Autonomous Decision Science Platform®, which enables organizations to autonomously analyze data, predict outcomes, and execute optimized decisions with high accuracy across complex business operations. It anticipates market shifts and recommends optimal actions and makes decisions with up to 91% accuracy, even in the most volatile economic and political environments.

Enterra’s ADS Platform allows EDERS to process vast amounts of internal and external data, anticipating risk to an organization’s most critical assets, as well as those of its competitors. EDERS then systemically predicts and recommends the best actions for the organization to take to avoid or deflect risk, while exploiting market opportunity to win.

Concluding Thoughts

Futurist Mark van Rijmenam asserts, “To thrive amidst exponential change, individuals and organizations must learn to anticipate, interpret, and act on the signals shaping tomorrow, a practice called Futures Thinking. The seeds of tomorrow often exist as faint signals today, visible only to those who are actively looking.”[4] Whether you call it scenario planning or futures thinking, anticipatory models require organizations to actively look for those signals, whether they are blaring or faint. Van Rijmenam explains, “Detecting and interpreting these signals is a cornerstone of futures thinking.” He concludes, “Resilience in a rapidly changing world isn't about merely weathering disruptions; it is about transforming unpredictability into opportunity. Futures thinking equips you with tools such as scenario planning, predictive analytics, and speculative design to prepare for a range of potential outcomes.” I couldn’t agree more. If your company isn’t taking advantage of futures thinking, it is at a significant disadvantage when compared to competitors that do.

Footnotes

[1] Anjli Raval, “Scenario planning is getting a stress test,” Financial Times, 12 May 2025.

[2] Staff, “5 Ways Scenario Planning Transforms Your Supply Chain Strategy,” John Galt Blog, 25 June 2025.

[3] Expert Panel, “20 Tech Experts On How To Boost Operational Resilience,” Forbes, 23 April 2025.

[4] Mark van Rijmenam, “The Secret Weapon of Top Futurists? It’s Not AI. It’s Imagination,” The Digital Speaker, 16 April 2025.